Good Day, this is the Commonwealth Report.
News for the public, not the powerful.
Will Trump’s Handpicked Fed Chair Defy Him and Raise Your Interest Rates?
The Federal Reserve meets this week, and Wall Street is betting Kevin Warsh raises interest rates on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of a quarter point hike above 85%. That’d be the first increase in Three years. Inflation came in at 3.4% on Friday, well above the Fed’s 2% target, and it’s been above target for more than 5 years. Trump’s war on Iran pushed crude past $100 a barrel last week, with the Strait of Hormuz nearly shut to tankers and Houthi fighters advancing along the Red Sea. Add his tariffs and the AI boom, and prices keep climbing. Here’s the problem. Warsh is Trump’s handpicked chair, and Trump has demanded lower rates, launched a criminal probe against Jerome Powell, tried to fire another Fed governor, and told the board to “BE PATRIOTS for a change.” Brookings economist David Wessel says the choice is stark. Warsh either disappoints the markets or angers Trump. The Bank of England votes Thursday, the Bank of Japan Friday, and Europe already hiked last week. Central banks around the world are cleaning up after Trump’s war. Working families will pay the bill twice, first at the pump and then on every loan and mortgage.
Lutnick Swears the Trump Dividend Won’t Cost Taxpayers a Dime. Does the Math Add Up?
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went on NBC and promised that Trump’s 5,000 dollar checks won’t come from taxes or the deficit. So where does a trillion dollars come from? Lutnick says half of it comes from a visa program that doesn’t exist yet, one that’d charge wealthy foreigners $5 million each to extend their stay. He claims 100,000 people are on a waitlist, and that’s $500 billion. The rest? He pointed to the government’s $8.9 billion stake in Intel, which he says has grown in value. Except nobody’s sold those shares. It’s a paper gain. Kevin Hassett told Bloomberg they’d use budget reconciliation in Congress. JD Vance said tariffs would cover it. But the Supreme Court has ruled that Trump’s Liberation Day tariff revenue has to be refunded, and the Tax Foundation found an earlier $2,000 tariff dividend would’ve cost more than the tariffs ever raised. All this while the national debt just crossed $40 trillion. An AP poll found only 32% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. So he’s offering cash for votes and paying for it with money that isn’t there. That’s not economic policy. It’s a bribe with a bounced check.
Diesel Hits $9.99 and the Gas Pumps Literally Can’t Count Any Higher
Diesel prices have climbed so high in parts of California that gas station signs can’t display them. Those digital price boards only show four digits, so they’re maxed out at $9.99. Nationally, diesel hit an all-time record of $6.6 cents on Friday. That’s up from $5.85 last week and $3.71 this time last year. Up more than 60% in a year. David Stockman, Reagan’s own budget director and a former Republican congressman, posted a photo of the $10 diesel and wrote, “Good job, Trumpy!” The cause is no mystery. Trump’s war on Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic just hit its lowest level since May. And the Houthis are advancing on the Bab el Mandeb Strait, another chokepoint for the world’s oil. Remember, diesel isn’t just what truckers buy. It’s what moves every grocery, every package, every piece of lumber in this country. When diesel spikes, the price of everything follows. Trump promised a golden age. What working people got is a war they never asked for and a fuel bill that broke the signs.
Trump Promises Poor Kids Will Get Rich. So Why Do Economists Call It Dishonest?
Donald Trump is stumping on his so-called Trump accounts, and he’s telling crowds that a baby starting with $1,000 can end up with $100,000, $200,000, $300,000, maybe even a million. Here’s what he leaves out. The White House projections assume a 10% return every year for decades, plus parents putting in $5,000 a year until age 18 and $7,000 a year after that. For a family that can’t add anything to the seed money, the government’s own estimate is about $6,000 dollars at 18. Not $300,000. Michigan economist Justin Wolfers calls the projections “ridiculous, they’re dishonest and they’re misleading.” Darrick Hamilton, who helped invent the baby bonds idea, says the accounts will actually widen the wealth gap, because the tax breaks go to families rich enough to save $5,000 a year and employers can add $2,500 tax free. The $1,000 seed for poor kids expires when Trump leaves office. The tax breaks for the wealthy never do. Booker and Pressley’s baby bonds bill would’ve given poor children $46,000 by 18. Republicans never passed it. This isn’t a leg up for working families. It’s a trust fund for the rich with Trump’s name on it.
Kansas Democrat Blasts Trump’s Bombardier Threat as a Disaster for Red State Workers
Trump went on Truth Social over the holiday weekend and threatened Canadian jetmaker Bombardier, saying the company has to build its planes in America or lose access to American buyers. Small problem. Bombardier’s American headquarters is in Wichita, Kansas, and it employs more than 1,000 people there. Adam Hamilton, the former pastor running for Senate as a Democrat in deep red Kansas, told CNN’s Jake Tapper that every one of those jobs supports a chain of others. “It’s a disaster,” he said. Kansas sends $4 billion in trade to Canada every year, and all of it is now at risk. Hamilton also went after his opponent, Republican Senator Roger Marshall, for offering only a tepid response. He said Marshall should be fighting for the people of Kansas, not for a president who threatens our best trading partner on a whim. This is what Trump’s trade war looks like on the ground. Not Wall Street. Wichita. Farmers, machinists, and the diners that feed them all get caught in the crossfire of one Truth Social post. And when Republican senators won’t stand up for their own workers, it tells you exactly who they really work for.
Trump Says the $5,000 Checks Are 100 Percent Happening. So Why Not Now?
On the tarmac in Shannon, Ireland, Trump told reporters his $5,000 checks are 100% going forward if Republicans win in November. He says he knows exactly how he’ll pay for it, because the country is taking in trillions and trillions of dollars. Then a reporter asked the obvious question. Republicans control Congress right now. Why not send the checks now? Trump’s answer was “Because I don’t want to do it now.” He said if Democrats win, the country will be in shambles and won’t be able to afford it. Think about that. He’s admitting the money is a reward for voting his way, not relief for people who need it. His own House Speaker, Mike Johnson, called the whole thing brainstorming this morning. Trump has also claimed he doesn’t even need Congress to send the money. Economists put the cost at up to $1.3 trillion and warn it risks inflation and recession at the same time. So here’s where we are. A president dangling cash in front of voters, conditioning it on the election result, and offering nothing but trust me on how it’s funded. In any other country we’d call that what it is. Vote buying.
And that’s the way it is, Today Monday, September 14, 2026. I’m Thom Hartmann.
