Good Day, this is the Commonwealth Report.
News for the public, not the powerful.
Is Trump Days Away From Ordering a Nuclear Strike on Iran?
Tucker Carlson, who broke with Trump over the Iran war, said Sunday night that Trump will likely decide by next weekend whether to drop a nuclear weapon on Iran. He says the target is Pickaxe Mountain, which Israel claims Iran is using to restart its nuclear program. He also claims the administration quietly rewrote American nuclear doctrine in February to make first use of battlefield nukes easier. His post has been viewed over 34 million times. Carlson warned, “After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable.” Drop Site’s Ryan Grim says Carlson is well sourced in this White House. Nobody has verified this, and the White House hasn’t responded. But when a man who used to sit at Trump’s table says this out loud, we’d better pay attention.
Will Trump Rule Without Congress if Democrats Win Tomorrow?
Reuters reports the White House has spent months planning to govern around Congress if Democrats win tomorrow. Since April, Stephen Miller and budget director Russell Vought have worked with White House counsel Will Scharf to map out executive actions on immigration, tariffs, housing, and federal spending that don’t need a single vote. One official said they’re studying “where he could push the limits of his authority.” Vought wants political appointees deciding which programs get taxpayer money. Lawyers have briefed agency heads on subpoenas and warned them about what they put in writing. Asked how comfortable Trump would be governing by decree, one insider answered, very comfortable. Voters may take away his majority tomorrow, and he’s already planning to ignore them. That’s not a presidency. That’s a dare to the Constitution
Does Nate Silver’s Final Forecast Point to a Blue Tsunami?
The final New York Times Siena polls dropped Sunday night showing Democrats ahead in all seven of the biggest Senate battlegrounds, Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa, plus those states’ governor’s races. Abdul El-Sayed leads by 11 in Michigan. James Talarico is up seven over Ken Paxton in Texas. Nate Silver’s model pushed Democrats’ odds of taking the Senate above 80% for the first time, and his House odds have sat in the mid-90s for weeks. Silver wrote that the numbers show “a blue tsunami.” The Times’ Nate Cohn urges caution, since polls have underestimated Republicans before. But Trump’s approval is lower than in past midterms when Republicans got wiped out. Polls don’t vote. People do. If you haven’t voted yet, tomorrow democracy asks you to show up.
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Wisconsin Money Man Hides Republican Donors Behind a Wall of Shell Groups
The Guardian has traced a dark money labyrinth to one rented office in Hudson, Wisconsin. Thomas Datwyler is treasurer of more than 350 political committees, including 115 congressional campaigns and 100 super PACs. In 2023 he registered three groups in Delaware with sequential IRS numbers, a charity, a social welfare group, and a super PAC. The welfare group got $750,000 from Leonard Leo’s Concord Fund, then wired $445,000 to the super PAC and labeled it educational. It spent that money boosting a Utah candidate whose campaign treasurer was, you guessed it, Datwyler. He’s been named in 24 FEC complaints and never charged. Researcher Alyssa Bowen calls it “dark money made darker.” This is Citizens United fully grown. When nobody can trace who’s buying elections, the people with the money own the government.
Federal Judge Orders Trump’s DOJ to Stop Threatening Election Workers
Late Friday, US District Judge Trina Thompson barred the Justice Department and Homeland Security from threatening or coercing election workers into halting the count. She also ruled local officials can’t be forced to segregate or toss ballots the administration claims were cast by noncitizens. Thompson wrote the threats force election workers “daily to choose” between illegal demands and their duty. That came a day after DOJ sent letters to all 50 states threatening prosecution and jail. Meanwhile a Ninth Circuit panel, a Trump appointee writing, refused DOJ’s demand that California set aside 20,000 ballots, and UCLA researchers found over 40% of the names on Trump’s list aren’t even on California’s voter rolls. This is what the fight over tomorrow looks like. Not at the ballot box, but in the counting room.
Virginia and DC Sue to Stop Trump’s 250 Foot Arch Before the Bulldozers Roll
Virginia and DC filed suit Saturday to block Trump’s triumphal arch at Memorial Circle, between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Attorneys General Jay Jones and Brian Schwalb call it “flagrantly unlawful” and say Congress never authorized it. The arch would stand 250 feet tall, with 12 stories, offices, and a bronze Lady Liberty on top. Trump says it’ll double as a military complex with snipers and drones. Construction could start Thursday and run three years, snarling traffic and dumping runoff into the Potomac. It’s the third lawsuit, after Vietnam veterans in February and Arlington County in October. Judge Tanya Chutkan ordered 48 hours’ notice before any shovel hits dirt. Emperors build arches to themselves. Republics build them to the people who died for them. Which one are we?
And that’s the way it is, Today Monday, November 2, 2026. I’m Thom Hartmann
